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Management s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and other items within this Annual Report. These statements address activities, events or developments that we expect or anticipate will or may occur in the future, including things such as projections of results of operations, plans for growth, goals, future capital expenditures, competitive strengths, refere…
$3.93
$0.01 (-0.25%)
Live · 11:05 PM
29.21% operating margin is above average. ROIC at 11.97%.
Revenue declined 10.6% YoY. The question is whether this is cyclical or a structural shift.
Even for strong businesses, today's 16x P/E means the stock needs to keep delivering. There's no margin of safety if growth disappoints.
15.7x earnings, 5.9x FCF. Valuation is in a reasonable range. The main question is whether the business can re-accelerate or if current trajectory is already priced in.
Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares
Profitability & Returns
Revenue (TTM)
$229M
▼ -10.6% YoY
Net Income (TTM)
$12M
▲ +239.6% YoY
Op. Margin
13.82%
▲ +18.9pp YoY
ROIC
5.12%
▲ +6.7pp YoY
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
FCF (TTM)
$27M
▼ -3.9% YoY
Op. Cash Flow (TTM)
$28M
▼ -4.1% YoY
Net Debt
-$38M
Net Cash Position
Cash & Equiv.
$41M
5Y CAGR: +5.4%
5Y CAGR: -8.3%
Continue Research
At a P/E of 15.7 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 5.9, Amplify Energy (AMPY) trades below a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about $12.50 per share, so at $3.93 the stock looks undervalued (218.0% below estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.
On quality, Amplify Energy scores 37/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a lower-quality business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. All figures are computed from SEC filings; read the full methodology. This is analysis, not investment advice.
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about $12.50 per share for AMPY, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $9.37. At today's $3.93, that puts the stock about 218.0% below estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.
Amplify Energy scores 37 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 8 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a lower-quality business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a 13.8% operating margin and a 5.1% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from SEC filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.
That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. AMPY currently trades below its estimated intrinsic value and scores 37/100 on quality (lower-quality). A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.