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Management s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations. Although we believe our assumptions concerning future events are reasonable, several risks, uncertainties, and other factors could cause actual results and trends to differ materially from those projected, including but not limited to: Business and Industry Significant debt in current liabilities, certain of …
$4.15
+$0.29 (+7.51%)
EOD Jul 17, 2026
The business is unprofitable at the operating level (-0.54% margin). The thesis depends entirely on whether and when it reaches sustainable profitability.
Revenue declined 12.0% YoY. The question is whether this is cyclical or a structural shift.
Negative free cash flow of -$779K. The business is consuming cash, not generating it.
9.0x earnings, 35.0x FCF. The multiple is below average. Either the market is pricing in deterioration you should investigate, or there's genuine value here.
Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares
Profitability & Returns
Revenue (TTM)
$277M
▼ -12.0% YoY
Net Income (TTM)
$7M
▲ +35.1% YoY
Op. Margin
5.08%
▲ +0.8pp YoY
ROIC
27.53%
▲ +4.2pp YoY
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
FCF (TTM)
$2M
▲ +95.0% YoY
Op. Cash Flow (TTM)
$2M
▲ +95.1% YoY
Net Debt
-$254K
Net Cash Position
Cash & Equiv.
$401K
5Y CAGR: +9.8%
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At a P/E of 9.0 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 35.0, Blue Dolphin Energy (BDCO) trades above a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about $2.07 per share, so at $4.15 the stock looks overvalued (50.1% above estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.
On quality, Blue Dolphin Energy scores 36/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a lower-quality business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. All figures are computed from SEC filings; read the full methodology. This is analysis, not investment advice.
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about $2.07 per share for BDCO, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $1.55. At today's $4.15, that puts the stock about 50.1% above estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.
Blue Dolphin Energy scores 36 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 8 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a lower-quality business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a 5.1% operating margin and a 27.5% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from SEC filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.
That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. BDCO currently trades above its estimated intrinsic value and scores 36/100 on quality (lower-quality). A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.