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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$88.30
Intrinsic $117.73 · 25% MOS
Current price: $617.11
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.3% for years 1–5 and 1.2% for years 6–10, anchored to 2.3% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $5.3B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $117.73 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $88.30, suggesting the stock is currently 86% overvalued against the $617.11 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$5.3B
Cash & equivalents
$8.2B
Total debt
$8.5B
Shares outstanding
799M