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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$237.46
Intrinsic $316.61 · 25% MOS
Current price: $419.01
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Analog Devices Inc (ADI) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 13.8% for years 1–5 and 6.9% for years 6–10, anchored to 13.8% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $4.6B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $316.61 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $237.46, suggesting the stock is currently 43% overvalued against the $419.01 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$4.6B
Cash & equivalents
$3.4B
Total debt
$8.7B
Shares outstanding
490M