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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$599.50
Intrinsic $799.33 · 25% MOS
Current price: $257.70
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 40.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.7B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $799.33 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $599.50, suggesting the stock is currently 133% undervalued against the $257.70 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.7B
Cash & equivalents
$2.4B
Total debt
$587M
Shares outstanding
108M