/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$-36.61
Intrinsic $-48.82 · 25% MOS
Current price: $12.44
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Sunrun Inc. (RUN) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.0% for years 1–5 and 4.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($20M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $-48.82 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $-36.61, suggesting the stock is currently 394% overvalued against the $12.44 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative (-$309M). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($20M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$20M
Cash & equivalents
$1.1B
Total debt
$14.9B
Shares outstanding
272M