Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
TTM free cash flow is negative (-$1.21B). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsense, so this model uses the average of the last three positive years ($276M) instead. Treat every figure here as a rough estimate that assumes a return to historical profitability.
Conservative
$-29.52
359% overvaluedvs $11.40
Base
$-7.58
166% overvaluedvs $11.40
Optimistic
$42.18
270% undervaluedvs $11.40
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls inside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits inside the range but 166% above the base case. Upside from here requires beating your own base assumptions.
Base free cash flow
$276M
3-year average, TTM negative
Historical FCF CAGR
+0.0%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
11.2%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
62%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 11.2% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 8.0%, so the market is paying for growth you are not forecasting.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +0.0% a year.
Canadian Solar (CSIQ) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Canadian Solar (CSIQ) at about $-10.11 per share, or $-7.58 with a 25% margin of safety. At $11.40 the stock looks overvalued. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Canadian Solar's (CSIQ) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about $-10.11 per share for CSIQ. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $-7.58. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is Canadian Solar overvalued based on a DCF?+
At $11.40, CSIQ trades above the base-case intrinsic value of about $-10.11, a 188.7% premium over that estimate, so on this model it looks overvalued. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into Canadian Solar?+
The base case grows CSIQ's free cash flow at about 8.0% a year before fading. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Canadian Solar?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns CSIQ's $-10.11 intrinsic estimate into a $-7.58 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.
SourceFair value computed from the 10-K filed 10 Apr 2026, covering the period ending 31 Dec 2025, as reported to the SEC. Data last refreshed 10 Jun 2026. How this is calculated.
Price from market data, last close as of 18 Sept 2026. Fiscal year ends Dec.
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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.