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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$80.57
Intrinsic $107.43 · 25% MOS
Current price: $45.37
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 12.9% for years 1–5 and 6.5% for years 6–10, anchored to 12.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $169M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $107.43 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $80.57, suggesting the stock is currently 78% undervalued against the $45.37 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$169M
Cash & equivalents
$497M
Total debt
$76M
Shares outstanding
56M