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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$91.87
Intrinsic $122.49 · 25% MOS
Current price: $31.36
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Progress Software Corp (PRGS) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.2% for years 1–5 and 4.1% for years 6–10, anchored to 8.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $258M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $122.49 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $91.87, suggesting the stock is currently 193% undervalued against the $31.36 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$258M
Cash & equivalents
$113M
Total debt
$1.4B
Shares outstanding
43M