Choose a model
Each card values Aspen Insurance Holdings a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Aspen Insurance Holdings on book value: book value per share (equity) grows with retained profit and is priced at a normal price-to-book. For banks and insurers.
Years to project
Growth of book value per share
Book value per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/B
Starts at its own median P/B over five years
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's book value per share
Last twelve months
$39.60
Book value in 2031
Grows 0.0% a year for 5 years
$39.60
Price in 2031
$39.60 × 0.5 P/B
$19.80
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
$12.30
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
$12.30
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
$9.22
Paying $17.09 instead gives 3.0% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
$12.30
Expected return
3.0% a year
Future price, 2031
$19.80
Buy below
$9.22
Price 39% above fair valuePrice $17.09, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Aspen Insurance Holdings (AHL-PD) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Aspen Insurance Holdings's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for AHL-PD; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Aspen Insurance Holdings's (AHL-PD) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Aspen Insurance Holdings's fair value is about $12.30 a share, based on its book value per share. That assumes book value per share of $39.60 grows about 0.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 0.5 times book value, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: earnings $18.50, free cash flow $14.28, revenue $10.92. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Aspen Insurance Holdings overvalued?+
At $17.09, the price is 39% above that fair value of $12.30, and buying at today's price would return about 3.0% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Aspen Insurance Holdings valuation assume?+
Book value per share grows about 0.0% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at its own median over five years.
What is a good margin of safety for Aspen Insurance Holdings?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $9.22. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
Peers
Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance · Pick stocks to compare with AHL-PD
Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in AHL-PD's SEC filings or
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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