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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$0.76
Intrinsic $1.01 · 25% MOS
Current price: $7.12
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 150.0% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $3M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $1.01 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $0.76, suggesting the stock is currently 89% overvalued against the $7.12 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$3M
Cash & equivalents
$762000
Total debt
$130M
Shares outstanding
13M