The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
Conservative
$96.57
26% overvaluedvs $130.79
Base
$193.57
48% undervaluedvs $130.79
Optimistic
$371.58
184% undervaluedvs $130.79
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls inside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits inside the range, 48% below the base case. Whether that is a discount depends entirely on the base case growth holding.
Base free cash flow
$5.88B
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
+23.9%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
8.9%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
69%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 8.9% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 20.0%, so you are forecasting more growth than the price requires.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +23.9% a year.
TJX Companies (TJX) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values TJX Companies (TJX) at about $258.10 per share, or $193.57 with a 25% margin of safety. At $130.79 the stock looks undervalued. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is TJX Companies's (TJX) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about $258.10 per share for TJX. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $193.57. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is TJX Companies overvalued based on a DCF?+
At $130.79, TJX trades below the base-case intrinsic value of about $258.10, a 97.3% discount to that estimate, so on this model it looks undervalued. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into TJX Companies?+
The base case grows TJX's free cash flow at about 20.0% a year before fading, against roughly 23.9% historical free-cash-flow growth. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for TJX Companies?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns TJX's $258.10 intrinsic estimate into a $193.57 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.
SourceFair value computed from the 10-Q filed 28 Aug 2026, covering the period ending 1 Aug 2026, as reported to the SEC. Data last refreshed 29 Aug 2026. How this is calculated.
Price from market data, last close as of 22 Sept 2026. Fiscal year ends Feb.
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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.