DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
¥777.29
Intrinsic ¥1036.38 · 25% MOS
Current price: ¥46.73
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 48.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from ¥13.6B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of ¥1036.38 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of ¥777.29, suggesting the stock is currently 1564% undervalued against the ¥46.73 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
¥13.6B
Cash & equivalents
¥71.9B
Total debt
¥31.6B
Shares outstanding
700M