Choose a model
Each card values Supernus Pharmaceuticals a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Supernus Pharmaceuticals on revenue: sales per share grow and the stock trades at a normal price-to-sales multiple. For companies not yet profitable.
Years to project
Growth of revenue per share
Revenue per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/S
Starts at its own median P/S over five years
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's revenue per share
Last twelve months
$14.86
Revenue in 2031
Grows 5.6% a year for 5 years
$19.51
Price in 2031
$19.51 × 3.0 P/S
$58.52
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
$36.34
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
$36.34
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
$27.25
Paying $28.21 instead gives 15.7% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
$36.34
Expected return
15.7% a year
Future price, 2031
$58.52
Buy below
$27.25
Price 22% below fair valuePrice $28.21, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Build your own intrinsic value for Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. Start from three cases based on the company's own filings, then change any number to match your view.
Conservative
$29.16
3% above the priceof $28.21
Buy below $21.87 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Base
$32.59
16% above the priceof $28.21
Buy below $24.44 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Optimistic
$36.31
29% above the priceof $28.21
Buy below $27.23 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits below all three scenarios. That reading is only as reliable as the growth rates entered.
Base free cash flow
$87M
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
-7.3%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
-0.9%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
59%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes -0.9% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 2.0%, so you are forecasting more growth than the price requires.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is -7.3% a year.
Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Supernus Pharmaceuticals's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for SUPN; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Supernus Pharmaceuticals's (SUPN) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Supernus Pharmaceuticals's fair value is about $36.34 a share, based on its revenue per share. That assumes revenue per share of $14.86 grows about 5.6% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 3.0 times revenue, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: free cash flow $13.44. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Supernus Pharmaceuticals overvalued?+
At $28.21, the price is 22% below that fair value of $36.34, and buying at today's price would return about 15.7% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Supernus Pharmaceuticals valuation assume?+
Revenue per share grows about 5.6% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at its own median over five years.
What is a good margin of safety for Supernus Pharmaceuticals?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $27.25. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
SourceFair value computed from the 10-Q filed 27 Oct 2026, covering the period ending 30 Sept 2026, as reported to the SEC. Data last refreshed 30 Oct 2026. How this is calculated.
Price from market data, last close as of 4 Nov 2026. Fiscal year ends Dec.
Peers
Pharmaceutical Preparations · Pick stocks to compare with SUPN
Held by ETFs
SUPN is in 86 US ETFs. The largest of them, with SUPN's weight in each:
Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in SUPN's SEC filings or
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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