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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$40.79
Intrinsic $54.39 · 25% MOS
Current price: $49.84
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Sensata Technologies Holding plc (ST) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 4.4% for years 1–5 and 2.2% for years 6–10, anchored to 4.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $508M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $54.39 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $40.79, suggesting the stock is currently 18% overvalued against the $49.84 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$508M
Cash & equivalents
$635M
Total debt
$2.9B
Shares outstanding
147M