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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$110.56
Intrinsic $147.41 · 25% MOS
Current price: $55.47
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Sps Commerce Inc (SPSC) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 12.3% for years 1–5 and 6.2% for years 6–10, anchored to 12.3% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $167M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $147.41 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $110.56, suggesting the stock is currently 99% undervalued against the $55.47 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$167M
Cash & equivalents
$154M
Total debt
$7M
Shares outstanding
37M