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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$17.58
Intrinsic $23.43 · 25% MOS
Current price: $24.29
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (CWAN) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 32.0% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $153M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $23.43 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $17.58, suggesting the stock is currently 28% overvalued against the $24.29 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$153M
Cash & equivalents
$82M
Total debt
$869M
Shares outstanding
295M