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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$11.39
Intrinsic $15.19 · 25% MOS
Current price: $5.03
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Smart Sand, Inc. (SND) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 5.8% for years 1–5 and 2.9% for years 6–10, anchored to 5.8% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $28M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $15.19 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $11.39, suggesting the stock is currently 126% undervalued against the $5.03 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$28M
Cash & equivalents
$19M
Total debt
$39M
Shares outstanding
39M