Choose a model
Each card values Shell a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Shell on earnings: earnings per share grow for a few years, then the stock trades at a normal price-to-earnings multiple.
Years to project
Growth of earnings per share
Earnings per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/E
Starts at the average of its 5-year median P/E, today's and a mature 18
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's earnings per share
Diluted, last twelve months, as filed
$4.53
Earnings in 2031
Grows 5.6% a year for 5 years
$5.95
Price in 2031
$5.95 × 14.3 P/E
$85.11
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
$52.85
Plus dividends
$8.76 paid over 5 years, discounted the same way
+ $6.57
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
$59.42
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
$44.56
Paying $51.31 instead gives 12.8% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
$59.42
Expected return
12.8% a year
Future price, 2031
$85.11
Buy below
$44.56
Price 14% below fair valuePrice $51.31, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Build your own intrinsic value for Shell plc. Start from three cases based on the company's own filings, then change any number to match your view.
Conservative
$84.29
64% above the priceof $51.31
Buy below $63.22 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Base
$105.41
105% above the priceof $51.31
Buy below $79.06 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Optimistic
$128.77
151% above the priceof $51.31
Buy below $96.58 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits below all three scenarios. That reading is only as reliable as the growth rates entered.
Base free cash flow
$31.55B
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
+3.9%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
-6.6%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
60%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes -6.6% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 3.9%, so you are forecasting more growth than the price requires.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +3.9% a year.
Shell (SHEL.XLON) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Shell's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for SHEL.XLON; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Shell's (SHEL.XLON) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Shell's fair value is about $59.42 a share, based on its earnings per share. That assumes earnings per share of $4.53 grows about 5.6% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 14.3 times earnings, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: free cash flow $61.01, revenue $63.80, dividends $61.04. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Shell overvalued?+
At $51.31, the price is 14% below that fair value of $59.42, and buying at today's price would return about 12.8% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Shell valuation assume?+
Earnings per share grows about 5.6% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at a default.
What is a good margin of safety for Shell?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $44.56. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
Peers
Oil & Gas Integrated · Pick stocks to compare with SHEL.XLON
Held by ETFs
SHEL.XLON is in 156 US ETFs. The largest of them, with SHEL.XLON's weight in each:
Vanguard Total International Stock ETFVXUS0.62%of the fund
iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETFIEFA1.22%of the fund
Spot a number that looks wrong?
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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