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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$33.47
Intrinsic $44.62 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 47.8% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $208M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $44.62 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $33.47.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$208M
Cash & equivalents
$182M
Total debt
$5.0B
Shares outstanding
128M