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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$105.44
Intrinsic $140.58 · 25% MOS
Current price: $23.55
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 39.8% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $237M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $140.58 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $105.44, suggesting the stock is currently 348% undervalued against the $23.55 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$237M
Cash & equivalents
$329M
Total debt
$630M
Shares outstanding
83M