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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$522.22
Intrinsic $696.29 · 25% MOS
Current price: $171.91
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Boston Beer Co Inc (SAM) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 14.9% for years 1–5 and 7.5% for years 6–10, anchored to 14.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $191M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $696.29 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $522.22, suggesting the stock is currently 204% undervalued against the $171.91 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$191M
Cash & equivalents
$164M
Total debt
$35M
Shares outstanding
10M