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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$3.26
Intrinsic $4.34 · 25% MOS
Current price: $10.54
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.5% for years 1–5 and 1.3% for years 6–10, anchored to 2.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $146M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $4.34 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $3.26, suggesting the stock is currently 69% overvalued against the $10.54 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$146M
Cash & equivalents
$353M
Total debt
$2.3B
Shares outstanding
149M