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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$52.78
Intrinsic $70.38 · 25% MOS
Current price: $62.82
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Equity Lifestyle Properties Inc (ELS) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 24.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $335M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $70.38 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $52.78, suggesting the stock is currently 16% overvalued against the $62.82 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$335M
Cash & equivalents
$39M
Total debt
$2.9B
Shares outstanding
200M