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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$188.04
Intrinsic $250.72 · 25% MOS
Current price: $266.10
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Ryder System Inc (R) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 15.4% for years 1–5 and 7.7% for years 6–10, anchored to 15.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $478M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $250.72 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $188.04, suggesting the stock is currently 29% overvalued against the $266.10 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$478M
Cash & equivalents
$182M
Total debt
$8.7B
Shares outstanding
40M