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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$185.39
Intrinsic $247.18 · 25% MOS
Current price: $111.30
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 10.5% for years 1–5 and 5.3% for years 6–10, anchored to 10.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $290M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $247.18 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $185.39, suggesting the stock is currently 67% undervalued against the $111.30 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$290M
Cash & equivalents
$471M
Total debt
$52M
Shares outstanding
36M