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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$29.80
Intrinsic $39.74 · 25% MOS
Current price: $12.25
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Porch Group, Inc. (PRCH) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 39.6% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $90M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $39.74 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $29.80, suggesting the stock is currently 143% undervalued against the $12.25 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$90M
Cash & equivalents
$68M
Total debt
$399M
Shares outstanding
106M