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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$39.87
Intrinsic $53.16 · 25% MOS
Current price: $44.46
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Douglas Dynamics, Inc (PLOW) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 5.4% for years 1–5 and 2.7% for years 6–10, anchored to 5.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $63M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $53.16 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $39.87, suggesting the stock is currently 10% overvalued against the $44.46 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$63M
Cash & equivalents
$5M
Total debt
$97M
Shares outstanding
24M