Choose a model
Each card values Orkla ASA a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Orkla ASA on earnings: earnings per share grow for a few years, then the stock trades at a normal price-to-earnings multiple.
Years to project
Growth of earnings per share
Earnings per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/E
Starts at the average of its 5-year median P/E, today's and a mature 18
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's earnings per share
Diluted EPS of kr 6.87 as filed, last twelve months, lowered to what operating profit after tax supports (one-off gains left out)
kr 6.11
Earnings in 2031
Grows 7.0% a year for 5 years
kr 8.58
Price in 2031
kr 8.58 × 15.8 P/E
kr 135.50
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
kr 84.14
Plus dividends
kr 36.92 paid over 5 years, discounted the same way
+ kr 27.63
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
kr 111.77
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
kr 83.83
Paying kr 100.10 instead gives 11.5% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
kr 111.77
Expected return
11.5% a year
Future price, 2031
kr 135.50
Buy below
kr 83.83
Price 10% below fair valuePrice kr 100.10, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Build your own intrinsic value for Orkla ASA. Start from three cases based on the company's own filings, then change any number to match your view.
Conservative
kr 126.43
26% above the priceof kr 100.10
Buy below kr 94.82 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Base
kr 221.95
122% above the priceof kr 100.10
Buy below kr 166.47 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Optimistic
kr 355.06
255% above the priceof kr 100.10
Buy below kr 266.29 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits below all three scenarios. That reading is only as reliable as the growth rates entered.
Base free cash flow
kr 6.73B
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
+12.6%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
0.5%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
66%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 0.5% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 12.6%, so you are forecasting more growth than the price requires.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +12.6% a year.
Orkla ASA (ORK.XOSL) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Orkla ASA's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for ORK.XOSL; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Orkla ASA's (ORK.XOSL) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Orkla ASA's fair value is about kr 111.77 a share, based on its earnings per share. That assumes earnings per share of kr 6.11 grows about 7.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 15.8 times earnings, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: free cash flow kr 151.21, revenue kr 133.10, dividends kr 185.82. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Orkla ASA overvalued?+
At kr 100.10, the price is 10% below that fair value of kr 111.77, and buying at today's price would return about 11.5% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Orkla ASA valuation assume?+
Earnings per share grows about 7.0% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at a default.
What is a good margin of safety for Orkla ASA?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at kr 83.83. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
Peers
Packaged Foods · Pick stocks to compare with ORK.XOSL
Held by ETFs
ORK.XOSL is in 81 US ETFs. The largest of them, with ORK.XOSL's weight in each:
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETFVEA0.02%of the fund
iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETFIEFA0.03%of the fund
Schwab International Equity ETFSCHF0.02%of the fund
State Street SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETFSPDW0.05%of the fund
Spot a number that looks wrong?
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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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