Observit AB (OBSE.XSTO) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
Conservative
kr 0.05
6% overvaluedvs kr 0.05
Base
kr 0.05
1% overvaluedvs kr 0.05
Optimistic
kr 0.05
5% undervaluedvs kr 0.05
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls inside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits inside the range but 1% above the base case. Upside from here requires beating your own base assumptions.
Base free cash flow
kr 1M
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
-17.3%
Across 5 reported periods
Market implies
-9.5%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
58%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes -9.5% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 2.0%, so you are forecasting more growth than the price requires.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is -17.3% a year.
Observit AB (OBSE.XSTO) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Observit AB (OBSE.XSTO) at about SEK 0.07 per share, or SEK 0.05 with a 25% margin of safety. At SEK 0.05 the stock looks around fair value. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Observit AB's (OBSE.XSTO) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about SEK 0.07 per share for OBSE.XSTO. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around SEK 0.05. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is Observit AB overvalued based on a DCF?+
At SEK 0.05, OBSE.XSTO trades around the base-case intrinsic value of about SEK 0.07, a 32.2% discount to that estimate, so on this model it looks around fair value. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into Observit AB?+
The base case grows OBSE.XSTO's free cash flow at about 2.0% a year before fading, against roughly -17.3% historical free-cash-flow growth. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Observit AB?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns OBSE.XSTO's SEK 0.07 intrinsic estimate into a SEK 0.05 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.