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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$32.46
Intrinsic $43.27 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Natera, Inc. (NTRA) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 22.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $105M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $43.27 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $32.46.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$105M
Cash & equivalents
$1.1B
Total debt
$240M
Shares outstanding
142M