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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
¥2863.90
Intrinsic ¥3818.53 · 25% MOS
Current price: ¥120.90
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for NetEase, Inc. (NTES) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 18.3% for years 1–5 and 9.2% for years 6–10, anchored to 18.3% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from ¥50.5B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of ¥3818.53 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of ¥2863.90, suggesting the stock is currently 2269% undervalued against the ¥120.90 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
¥50.5B
Cash & equivalents
¥162.6B
Total debt
¥6.7B
Shares outstanding
645M