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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$103.98
Intrinsic $138.64 · 25% MOS
Current price: $77.38
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Netflix Inc (NFLX) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 64.6% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $11.9B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $138.64 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $103.98, suggesting the stock is currently 34% undervalued against the $77.38 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$11.9B
Cash & equivalents
$12.3B
Total debt
$16.7B
Shares outstanding
4.3B