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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$246.79
Intrinsic $329.05 · 25% MOS
Current price: $591.08
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Martin Marietta Materials Inc (MLM) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 7.7% for years 1–5 and 3.9% for years 6–10, anchored to 7.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.0B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $329.05 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $246.79, suggesting the stock is currently 58% overvalued against the $591.08 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.0B
Cash & equivalents
$273M
Total debt
$5.7B
Shares outstanding
60M