DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$29.97
Intrinsic $39.95 · 25% MOS
Current price: $16.51
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Mgp Ingredients Inc (MGPI) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 5.1% for years 1–5 and 2.6% for years 6–10, anchored to 5.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $53M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $39.95 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $29.97, suggesting the stock is currently 82% undervalued against the $16.51 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$53M
Cash & equivalents
$10M
Total debt
$254M
Shares outstanding
21M