Metall Zug AG (METN.XSWX) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
TTM free cash flow is negative (-CHF 52M). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsense, so this model uses the average of the last three positive years (CHF 14M) instead. Treat every figure here as a rough estimate that assumes a return to historical profitability.
Conservative
CHF 442.08
48% overvaluedvs CHF 857.00
Base
CHF 611.99
29% overvaluedvs CHF 857.00
Optimistic
CHF 997.36
16% undervaluedvs CHF 857.00
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls inside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits inside the range but 29% above the base case. Upside from here requires beating your own base assumptions.
Base free cash flow
CHF 14M
3-year average, TTM negative
Historical FCF CAGR
+0.0%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
8.8%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
62%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 8.8% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 8.0%, so the market is paying for growth you are not forecasting.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +0.0% a year.
Metall Zug (METN.XSWX) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Metall Zug (METN.XSWX) at about CHF 815.98 per share, or CHF 611.99 with a 25% margin of safety. At CHF 857.00 the stock looks overvalued. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Metall Zug's (METN.XSWX) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about CHF 815.98 per share for METN.XSWX. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around CHF 611.99. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is Metall Zug overvalued based on a DCF?+
At CHF 857.00, METN.XSWX trades above the base-case intrinsic value of about CHF 815.98, a 4.8% premium over that estimate, so on this model it looks overvalued. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into Metall Zug?+
The base case grows METN.XSWX's free cash flow at about 8.0% a year before fading. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Metall Zug?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns METN.XSWX's CHF 815.98 intrinsic estimate into a CHF 611.99 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.