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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$228.64
Intrinsic $304.85 · 25% MOS
Current price: $117.62
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Monarch Casino & Resort Inc (MCRI) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 13.8% for years 1–5 and 6.9% for years 6–10, anchored to 13.8% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $155M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $304.85 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $228.64, suggesting the stock is currently 94% undervalued against the $117.62 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$155M
Cash & equivalents
$120M
Total debt
$13M
Shares outstanding
18M