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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$38.87
Intrinsic $51.83 · 25% MOS
Current price: $132.54
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Mid America Apartment Communities Inc. (MAA) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.2% for years 1–5 and 1.1% for years 6–10, anchored to 2.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $685M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $51.83 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $38.87, suggesting the stock is currently 71% overvalued against the $132.54 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$685M
Cash & equivalents
$72M
Total debt
$6.0B
Shares outstanding
117M