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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$38.36
Intrinsic $51.15 · 25% MOS
Current price: $27.69
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 59.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($269M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $51.15 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $38.36, suggesting the stock is currently 39% undervalued against the $27.69 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative ($0). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($269M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$269M
Cash & equivalents
$33M
Total debt
$3.1B
Shares outstanding
206M