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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$427.02
Intrinsic $569.36 · 25% MOS
Current price: $388.16
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 7.4% for years 1–5 and 3.7% for years 6–10, anchored to 7.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $7.7B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $569.36 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $427.02, suggesting the stock is currently 10% undervalued against the $388.16 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$7.7B
Cash & equivalents
$1.0B
Total debt
$49.5B
Shares outstanding
239M