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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$1077.43
Intrinsic $1436.57 · 25% MOS
Current price: $1126.84
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 16.7% for years 1–5 and 8.4% for years 6–10, anchored to 16.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $901M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $1436.57 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $1077.43, suggesting the stock is currently 4% overvalued against the $1126.84 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$901M
Cash & equivalents
$219M
Total debt
$3.7B
Shares outstanding
24M