Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
€63.25
Intrinsic €84.33 · 25% MOS
Current price: €68.73
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Ferrovial N.V. (FER) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 26.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow (€1.3B) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of €84.33 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of €63.25, suggesting the stock is currently 8% overvalued against the €68.73 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative (€0). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF (€1.3B) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
€1.3B
Cash & equivalents
€4.2B
Total debt
€10.7B
Shares outstanding
718M