Choose a model
Each card values Ellington Financial a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Ellington Financial on ffo: funds from operations (net income plus depreciation), the cash a property trust's buildings produce, priced at a normal multiple.
Years to project
Growth of FFO per share
FFO per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/FFO
Starts at its own median P/FFO over five years
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's FFO per share
Last twelve months
$1.38
FFO in 2031
Grows 19.2% a year for 5 years
$3.33
Price in 2031
$3.33 × 11.2 P/FFO
$37.30
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
$23.16
Plus dividends
$14.94 paid over 5 years, discounted the same way
+ $10.96
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
$34.12
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
$25.59
Paying $11.41 instead gives 35.6% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
$34.12
Expected return
35.6% a year
Future price, 2031
$37.30
Buy below
$25.59
Price 67% below fair valuePrice $11.41, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Ellington Financial (EFC) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Ellington Financial's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for EFC; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Ellington Financial's (EFC) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Ellington Financial's fair value is about $34.12 a share, based on its FFO per share. That assumes FFO per share of $1.38 grows about 19.2% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 11.2 times FFO, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: earnings $18.11, book value $14.06, dividends $21.19. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Ellington Financial overvalued?+
At $11.41, the price is 67% below that fair value of $34.12, and buying at today's price would return about 35.6% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Ellington Financial valuation assume?+
FFO per share grows about 19.2% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at its own median over five years.
What is a good margin of safety for Ellington Financial?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $25.59. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
Peers
Real Estate · Pick stocks to compare with EFC
Held by ETFs
EFC is in 62 US ETFs. The largest of them, with EFC's weight in each:
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETFIJR0.09%of the fund
Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETFSCHA0.04%of the fund
Vanguard Russell 2000 ETFVTWO0.05%of the fund
State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 600 Small Cap ETFSPSM0.09%of the fund
Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in EFC's SEC filings or
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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