Ecopetrol S.A. Sponsored ADR (EC) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
TTM free cash flow is negative (COP 0.00). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsense, so this model uses the average of the last three positive years (COP 17.02T) instead. Treat every figure here as a rough estimate that assumes a return to historical profitability.
Conservative
COP 73,792.32
429925% undervaluedvs COP 17.16
Base
COP 117,997.63
687532% undervaluedvs COP 17.16
Optimistic
COP 171,163.35
997355% undervaluedvs COP 17.16
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits below all three scenarios. Under these assumptions the stock looks undervalued, which is only as reliable as the growth rates you have entered.
Base free cash flow
COP 17.02T
3-year average, TTM negative
Historical FCF CAGR
+7.9%
Across 5 reported periods
Market implies
-16.0%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
62%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes -16.0% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 7.9%, so you are forecasting more growth than the price requires.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +7.9% a year.
Ecopetrol S.A. Sponsored ADR (EC) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Ecopetrol S.A. Sponsored ADR (EC) at about COP 156,972.92 per share, or COP 117,729.69 with a 25% margin of safety. At COP 17.16 the stock looks undervalued. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Ecopetrol S.A. Sponsored ADR's (EC) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about COP 156,972.92 per share for EC. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around COP 117,729.69. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is Ecopetrol S.A. Sponsored ADR overvalued based on a DCF?+
At COP 17.16, EC trades below the base-case intrinsic value of about COP 156,972.92, a 914,660.6% discount to that estimate, so on this model it looks undervalued. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into Ecopetrol S.A. Sponsored ADR?+
The base case grows EC's free cash flow at about 7.9% a year before fading, against roughly 7.9% historical free-cash-flow growth. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Ecopetrol S.A. Sponsored ADR?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns EC's COP 156,972.92 intrinsic estimate into a COP 117,729.69 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
Spot a number that looks wrong?
Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.