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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$158.84
Intrinsic $211.79 · 25% MOS
Current price: $314.36
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Dominos Pizza Inc (DPZ) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 3.2% for years 1–5 and 1.6% for years 6–10, anchored to 3.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $654M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $211.79 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $158.84, suggesting the stock is currently 49% overvalued against the $314.36 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$654M
Cash & equivalents
$233M
Total debt
$5.3B
Shares outstanding
34M