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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$26.81
Intrinsic $35.75 · 25% MOS
Current price: $23.49
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.0% for years 1–5 and 4.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($230M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $35.75 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $26.81, suggesting the stock is currently 14% undervalued against the $23.49 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative (-$419M). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($230M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$230M
Cash & equivalents
$988M
Total debt
$40M
Shares outstanding
187M