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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$131.67
Intrinsic $175.56 · 25% MOS
Current price: $51.91
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 21.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $918M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $175.56 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $131.67, suggesting the stock is currently 154% undervalued against the $51.91 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$918M
Cash & equivalents
$777M
Total debt
$170M
Shares outstanding
267M