Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A. Sponsored ADR Intrinsic Value

With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A. Sponsored ADR's fair value is about ARS 107,565.96 a share, based on its FFO per share. That assumes FFO per share of ARS 11,548.81 grows about 0.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 15.0 times FFO, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: earnings ARS 84,183.48, revenue ARS 65,808.86, book value ARS 98.60. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.

At ARS 14,484.53, the price is 87% below that fair value of ARS 107,565.96, and buying at today's price would return about 64.3% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.

FFO per share grows about 0.0% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at a default.

A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at ARS 80,674.47. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.