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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$317.05
Intrinsic $422.73 · 25% MOS
Current price: $252.54
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Cme Group Inc. (CME) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 13.7% for years 1–5 and 6.9% for years 6–10, anchored to 13.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $4.3B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $422.73 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $317.05, suggesting the stock is currently 26% undervalued against the $252.54 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$4.3B
Cash & equivalents
$2.5B
Total debt
$319M
Shares outstanding
363M