Circle S.p.A. (CIRC.XMIL) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
TTM free cash flow is negative (-€1M). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsense, so this model uses the average of the last three positive years (€340,380.50) instead. Treat every figure here as a rough estimate that assumes a return to historical profitability.
Conservative
€1.50
0% undervaluedvs €0.00
Base
€1.96
0% undervaluedvs €0.00
Optimistic
€2.99
0% undervaluedvs €0.00
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Base free cash flow
€340,380.50
3-year average, TTM negative
Historical FCF CAGR
+0.0%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
—
No solution in range
Terminal value share
62%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
No growth rate in the tested range reproduces today's price at these assumptions.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +0.0% a year.
Circle S.p.A. (CIRC.XMIL) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Circle S.p.A. (CIRC.XMIL) at about €2.61 per share, or €1.96 with a 25% margin of safety. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Circle S.p.A.'s (CIRC.XMIL) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about €2.61 per share for CIRC.XMIL. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around €1.96. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
What growth is priced into Circle S.p.A.?+
The base case grows CIRC.XMIL's free cash flow at about 8.0% a year before fading. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Circle S.p.A.?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns CIRC.XMIL's €2.61 intrinsic estimate into a €1.96 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.